![]() The question on everyone’s mind is what will the CA House delegation be after the 2022 elections? It will continue the trend of increasing Latino representation and hence, more power for Latino voters. One-third of the new districts are now majority-Hispanic, an increase of about 3 districts, which tracks with California’s natural population growth and demographic shift towards Latinos. Ken Calvert’s district is also 6 points bluer than under the current map, although the seat is still Republican-leaning at R+7. Michelle Steel has been drawn into a Democratic-leaning district (D+6), which is a big shift from her current highly competitive (R+2) district. Darrell Issa’s district is 5 points more Republican in the new map. Mike Levin’s seat is also slightly less secure from D+7 to D+6. Katie Porter’s new district went from D+6 to R+4. Young Kim’s district went from D+6 to D+4, making her a favorite for re-election. Mike Garcia’s exurb/suburb Los Angeles district went from D+5 to D+8. David Valadao’s seat is slightly more blue than it is under the current map, from D+9 to D+10. Tom McClintock’s district went from solidly R+15 to a weaker R+8. Devin Nunes’ 21st district went from R+11 to D+16, which probably contributed to his decision to retire. Josh Harder’s district went from an R+1 to R+17 district. ![]() However, I caution the short-sightedness, as Democrats in their desire to gain more seats, have created more vulnerabilities than they may have imagined.īefore further analysis, let’s look at some key changes, from Northern California to Southern California: Holding all the political power in California, the redistricting commission nonetheless is named Independent, but Democratic interests prevail, as it did 10 years ago when a longstanding 34-19 Democrat-Republican split in Congress during the 2000’s was broken up and Democrats made consistent gains over the 2010’s, eventually getting as many as 46 seats in 2018.Īccording to fairness metrics, this new map is moderately biased towards Democrats. On paper, things look good for Democrats. ![]() Both are retiring so it will now be a likely Democratic open seat. That seat is one in Long Beach where Democratic incumbents Lowenthal and Royball-Allard were drawn into the same district. However, California’s population growth trailed that of other states, and will now be losing one seat. This was not entirely shocking as I got heavily involved with my local Orange County redistricting, and saw groups on the left, especially those advocating for Asians and Latinos, hold strong on their interests that were not entirely concerned about partisan advantages.Ĭurrently, California has 42 Democratic seats and 11 Republican. Surprisingly, it doesn’t alter the balance of power as dramatically as it could have done. California’s independent citizen redistricting commission just unanimously approved the state’s new congressional map three days ago, on December 20th. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |